Analysis of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data reveals that fertility motivations mediate the impact of internet use on fertility intentions. This mediating role operates in two directions. First, internet use diminishes family-oriented fertility motivations, including family legacy and economic utility motivation, suppressing fertility intentions. Second, internet use enhances individual-oriented fertility motivations, particularly emotion-driven motivation, promoting fertility intentions. Overall, the inhibiting role played by fertility motivation is more pronounced in the influence of internet use on fertility intentions. The mediating effect accounts for 11.251% of the total effect. Further, the impact of internet use on fertility motivation differs across cohorts, genders, urban-rural residences, and education levels. The impacts of different online behaviors on fertility motivation are also different. Exploring the mediating role of fertility motivation contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which internet use influences fertility intentions, offering novel insights for addressing low fertility rates in the internet era.

The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population. Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys, this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020. Marriage delay, which has been taking place across all population groups, has accelerated in the recent decade, but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low. Comparing with the Western countries, China has a different path to postpone marriage. Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China. We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to explain marriage delay in the Chinese context. Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability, feasibility and availability, and marriage delay will continue, but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay, males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single.

Based on CGSS2017 data, this paper examines the effects of surfing the internet on fertility intentions. The results show that surfing the internet will reduce individuals fertility intentions. The effects on the intended number of children are greater than that on whether to have children. There are two mechanisms for these effects. One is increasing anxiety about childbirth and thus changing the individuals attitudes towards giving birth. The other is raising personal consumption which squeezes the economic budget for childbearing and childrearing. The effects of internet use on fertility intentions vary across different purposes for getting online. Using the internet for study, work or social contact has no significant effects on individuals fertility intentions, while using the internet for shopping or entertainment significantly reduces fertility intentions. Other conventional media usage, such as newspapers, magazines, television, and mobile phone message has no significant influence. To prevent the negative impact of internet usage on fertility intentions, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of network information, reasonably guide online consumption, and help individuals to establish a positive attitude towards fertility and consumption.

Recent drastic changes in marriage and fertility behaviour had a considerable impact on China's number of births. A decomposition analysis demonstrates that all demographic factors are depressing birth numbers, including the size of reproductiveage women and its age structure, proportion married and marital fertility. The 7th Population Census suggests a more rapid decline in birth numbers.

Age at first marriage in China has been greatly delayed, but the proportion of population who stay lifetime single is still at a very low level, which is significantly different from the pattern of European marriage. The Chinese society attaches importance to the intergenerational obligation relationship in the family, and the social policies do their best to maintain the specific and exclusive gain from marriage, which strengthen the marriage value and help to maintain the universal marriage. However, in modern societies with intensive social mobility, people's values become more diverse. Conflict between consumerism culture and traditional concepts of marriage, family, and fertility affects people's choice of life style, which increases the risk of making non-marriage choices. In a period of economic slowdown and transformation, it is more difficult for individuals to find a suitable spouse in the marriage market, and thus more likely to choose not to marry. To analyze and predict the trend of marriage pattern in China, we must understand the process of individual marriage decision, especially the difference between universal marriage pattern and non-universal marriage pattern.

China is a country with the fastest growing high-speed railway, which is radically changing peoples commuting and travelling patterns, as well as promoting urbanization by reshaping urban spatial patterns in China. However, wide disputes exist in the role of high-speed railway in driving China's urbanization. This paper explores urban spatial patterns and the role of high-speed railway at China's prefecture level over 2010-2016 using MODIS remote sensing data and spatial panel analysis. The results suggest that there is an increasing tendency of urban agglomeration, and the Yangzi River Delta Region has witnessed the most rapid pace of urbanization. The impact of high-speed railway on urbanization depends on the development level of the city and the location of the highspeed railway station. High-speed railway significantly enhances the speed of urbanization with a larger effect in medium and small cities.

Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate (TFR), parity progressionbased total fertility rate (PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate (ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate (LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that Chinas recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the twochild policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birthbunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy.

Happiness is a universal pursuit of human societies. Measuring quality of life needs to combine objective conditions and subjective perceptions. The objective dimension has been largely established by measuring healthy life expectancy, while the subjective dimension is virtually absent. This research assesses the subjective component through a measure of happy life expectancy.While a lot of research have been done in many countries on measurement and analysis of healthy life expectancy over the past several decades, studies on happy life expectancy are only recent and rare.We did not find any research on happy life expectancy in China. This paper uses the CGSS data and life table method to produce estimates of happy life expectancy in China over 2005-2015. The results suggest there is “compression of unhappiness” or “expansion of happiness” in China over the period under study. We hold that the combination of healthy life expectancy and happy life expectancy can have a fuller and more comprehensive reflection on peoples quality of life.

Cohort-component method, the most widely used method in population projections, involves the issues of calculation and the details of programming when applied to the population projection software, which could impact the accuracy of projection results. Taking the mainstream projection software programs into account and based on the actual population data of Sweden, this paper, conducting comparative population projection tests, examines the applications of cohort-component method in the three population projection software programs including MORTPAK, Spectrum (DemProj) and PADIS-INT. The results show that the results of single-year age group obtained by the interpolation of five-year age group of the initial population are consistent and close between the three software programs; there is little difference in survival ratios calculated on the basis of the projection results of the three software programs; in the birth population projection, the three software programs don’t show great difference either. PADIS-INT has reached the projection level that international mainstream population projection software should have. Since PADIS-INT supports richer functionality especially in the parameter setting and the presentation of projection results, it is more suitable for a detailed population projection with application properties

     The past two decades have witnessed substantial growth in the elderly population living in empty- nest families in China， with lengthening years they spent in empty- nest status．However， studies of the empty- nest life expectancy of elderly in China are rare．Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHAR LS) 2011 to 2013 and multi- state life table method， this research produces estimates of the life expectancy of older people aged over 60 and their empty- nest life expectancy， and examines the differentials according to gender， residence and educational level， both population- based and state- based． The results show that， elderly in China spend over a half of their remaining life in empty- nest status; female elderly and the elderly in rural areas have higher empty- nest life expectancy than their counterparts respectively; and the higher the level of education of the elderly， the longer their empty- nest life expectancy． Initial living arrangements of the elderly have major impact on their empty- nest life expectancy． These results apparently have important policy implications．

Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China，this study empirically investigates family size desire，second childbearing intention and their determinants for married women who have already given birth to one child．We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable plan for the birth of a second child，while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable．Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman coresides with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the family size desire but are insignificantly associated with the second child- bearing intention．In contrast，financial and care burdens significantly affect women’s second child- bearing intention but are insignificantly associated with the family size desire．Sex preferences exist，meaning that women’s second childbearing intention is higher for those whose first child is a girl．Finally，the gap between women’s family size desire and second childbearing intention is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age，family’s financial status，care burdens and son preference．

Two fertility estimation approaches based on the generalized stable population model using census age distributions are used in this paper to assess Chinese fertility levels in the three inter － censual periods over 1982 － 2010. The integrated approach has obtained estimates of birth rate and number of births that are consistent for the 1982 － 1990 and 2000 － 2010 inter － censual periods with，but are markedly lower for the 1990 － 2000 period than the published estimates by National Bureau of Statistics of China． The corresponding estimates of the three inter － censual total fertility are 2. 65，1. 68 and 1. 56 respectively. The variable r method results in estimates of the three inter － censual total fertility being 2. 60，1. 61 and 1. 68 respectively.Thus China’s overall fertility level in the 2000s is around 1. 6.

Using data from China’s population censuses and sampling surveys, this paper provides a reassessment of China’s fertility since 2005 under the assumption that the 2010 census has  similarly high data quality as the 1990 census. Cohort analysis suggests that population aged 0-5 in the 1990 census is underreported by 7.7%, and population aged 0-5 in the 2010 census is thus adjusted with this rate, which are further translated into annual births and fertility rate over 2005-2010. This paper also provides an estimation of fertility over 2005-2013 using the relationship between total fertility rate and crude birth rate which are based on data from censuses and sampling surveys plus the crude birth rates published by the National Bureau of Statistics. While differences exist in the results from the two type of estimation, they are largely consistent. China’s recent fertility stands at a level that is unlikely below 1.5, and most probably around 1.6. The paper concludes with a discussion of the assumption used in this research and some plausible limitations of the research.

Similar to the result of the 2000 census，China's 2010 census reported an extremely low total fertility rate ( TFR) of 1．18 births per woman． A range of diverse studies have been conducted on assessing census data quality and reestimating China's fertility，reaching substantially controversial results and highly different estimates． This paper provides an indirect estimation of China's 2010 fertility using two types of fertility data，namely，women's number of children ever born and fertility in the year preceding the census．Brass P/F ratio method is employed in this estimation．Results show that P/F ratios stand relatively constant at around 1．4 across age groups 20～24 to 35～39，suggesting that China's fertility in the past 15 years have been relatively stable，no further declines occurred． This also implies that period fertility reported from the 2010 census was underreported by 40 percent．Using the P /F of 1．4 to adjust the TFR of 1．18 leads to an estimated TFR of 1．66． The paper also discusses two possible biases when this approach is used in the Chinese context．

This paper explores the effects of population aging on service industry by an empirical analysis using data from 55 countries，1960－2009. Results show that the proportion of service industry increases with population aging，but the effects through consumption path become statistically significant only after the level of population aging surpasses a certain point．We call it“demand effect”．When population aging proceeds to a very high level，the demand effects disappear as employment growth in the service industry is constrained．The demand effects differ between developed and less developed countries because of their different stages of economic development and population aging，especially different status of service industry measured by its proportion of GDP，labor productivity and the degree of marketization．The nature of the demand effects depends on both the level of population aging and the proportion of consumption in GDP．Thus，it is important to accelerate the development of the service industry in China both for positive response to population aging and sustainable economic development．

This paper further examines China’s fertility transition by measuring the quantum and tempo of fertility using and comparing various fertility measures，including total fertility rate，tempo－adjusted total fertility rate and intrinsic total fertility rate．The intrinsic total fertility rate developed by McDonald and Kippen controlling simultaneously age，parity and birth intervals，can capture more accurately the quantum and tempo effect in fertility decline．Ｒesults show that quantum effect accounts for more than 70 percent of fertility decline in China in the 1970s，which is decreased to over 60 percent in 1980s，slightly over 50 percent in the 1990s and lower than 50 percent in the 2000s．Tempo effect stood at 0. 2 －0. 4 birth per woman in the 1970s，while very small in the 1980s．In the recent decade，a decline of fertility by 0. 1 － 0. 2 birth per woman is due to tempo effect．

The development of family policy in China has experienced a completely different path from that in the United States and European countries.Contrary to the process of defamilization with the welfare regimes in the developed countries,the social welfare in China should be directed to familization,which means reframing welfare regimes in comformity with the premise of family responsibilities to provide benefits and protection for citizens by strengthening family functioning.China′s family policy has a dual task: on the one hand,enhancing family′s capabilities of welfare production and organization to supplement the inadequacy of social welfare development,and on the other hand,adjusting the organization of social welfare from "individual mode" to "family mode".China′s developmental family policies should be formulated with emphasis on enhancing capability of family development,developing pro-employment policies and assistance policies for workers to sustain their families.

China has just conducted the 6th national population census,with the enumeration taking place during 1-10 November 2010.Over the last few years,there have been many studies and conferences devoted to the 6th census,the central theme being challenges and suggestions as what the Population and Development Forum discussed a year ago organized by this journal.Today the journal has the forum again on the 6th census,discussing experiences from the conduct of the census.Three papers on different aspects of the census have contributed to the forum.The first paper by Cui Hongyan and Li Rui from National Bureau of Statistics of China examines developments in China’s population censuses over the last six decades,involving improvement in organization and implementation,expansion in census contents and items,upgrade in census techniques,improvement in means of data processing,and implementation of census law according to which the census is conducted.The second paper by Pang Jiangqian from Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics analyzes difficulties in conducting the 6th census in locating census objects as a result of increasing mobility,getting cooperation from residents,and recruiting competent census enumerators.Improved census approaches are discussed in the paper.The third paper by Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui from People’s University of China provides experiences and lessons learned from the 6th census based on their participation in the pilot survey and census preparation and enumeration work.Wang Qian,from National Population and Family Planning Commission of China,is invited to preside the forum,and offers critical comments to the three papers.

Based on ArcGIS as analytical tools and the 2000 census data,this research is carried out in county units. The result indicates that among principal function areas,key development zones have the highest population size while optimized key development zones the highest population density. Compared with limited development zones of lowest population quality,optimized development zones show highest population quality. As for age structure,optimized development zones reveal highest proportion of labor population. Further analysis demostrates that population migration does not follow the planning of principal function Areas. Current technical and cultural development may still not meet the requirement of principal function Areas planning. A large number of labors assemble in optimized development zones,which deviates from principal function Areas planning. In order to achieve regional population equilibrium,proper population and industrial policy should be implemented in different principal function Areas with consideration of regional advantadges. In addition,population policy should coordinate with other public policy.

While the very low fertility rates obtained from the various demographic surveys in the 1990s including the 2000 census are considered to be beyond belief,the very high sex ratios at birth(SRB)reported from the same surveys are widely accepted.The major objective of this article is to re-estimate China’s SRBs in the 1990s using the educational data by examining the sex differences in birth under-reporting in the 2000 census.Results show that the estimated SRBs were not as high as those reported in the census.The actual SRBs and sex ratios at younger age groups are estimated to be lower than those reported in the census by 5-9 percentage points.Under-reporting of female births is estimated to account for at least 50% of the excessive amount of the SRBs in the 1990s.Socio-economic differentials in the SRB are also examined in this article using the micro data of the 2000 census.

It has been a mystery how high Chinese fertility is in the 1990s.Using education statistics from Ministry of Health,which are independent of statistics from population-related departments,this paper assesses levels and patterns of underreporting in the 2000 census,thus estimating China’s fertility in the 1990s.Upon adjustment according to the education statistics,age-sex structure of population aged 0-9 of the 2000 census is reconstructed,which is then converted into annual number of births in 1991-2000,and fertility rates in the 1990s are reproduced.Estimates show that China reached replacement fertility in 1991,and had below-replacement fertility after that.China’s total fertility rate in the late 1990s stood at 1.7-1.8.